Joe the bookie’s advice regarding the 2.30 race at Ayr is quite interesting, and there are a few different aspects to consider when evaluating it. Firstly, it appears that Joe has put significant thought into his evaluation of each horse in the race, as he has assigned each runner a unique probability of winning. This indicates to me that Joe knows something about the form of each horse – either through personal experience or through research – that makes him believe these probabilities accurately reflect their chances.
Furthermore, by assigning the favourite a probability of 0.3 and two other horses each a probability of 0.20 (which is significantly higher than the remaining runners’ 0.05 probability), Joe is suggesting that those three horses are likely to be competitive in this particular race, while also indicating that they could provide good value for punters who back them appropriately according to their respective odds on offer at the track or elsewhere outwith Ayr Racecourse itself.
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